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Wastewater Watch

Internal early-warning page. Not published, not indexed, not linked. Watches report base rates from history, never certain predictions. The editor has not signed off these rules yet.

Updated 2026-11-10T01:42:07.434516+00:00 by vps:pnwarn1/w2_wastewater.py.

Rule

Flag a county when the population-weighted wastewater activity category of its sites reaches Very High after being Moderate or lower two weeks earlier, and the county has ED trend data or 2 or more sites (editor sign-off 2026-11-10, mackenzie_channel #295/#299).

Base rates

SARS-CoV-2: SARS-CoV-2: of 3,276 past county jumps into Very High wastewater activity (from Moderate or lower in 2 weeks) with ED data (2023-07 to 2026-09-19), 1,590 (49%) saw that county's ED visits trend 'Increasing' within 3 weeks; median lag 0 weeks. Counties with steady low wastewater: 47% (n 29,918).

Influenza A virus: Influenza A virus: of 1,280 past county jumps into Very High wastewater activity (from Moderate or lower in 2 weeks) with ED data (2023-07 to 2026-09-19), 743 (58%) saw that county's ED visits trend 'Increasing' within 3 weeks; median lag 0 weeks. Counties with steady low wastewater: 35% (n 39,651).

RSV: RSV: of 1,937 past county jumps into Very High wastewater activity (from Moderate or lower in 2 weeks) with ED data (2023-07 to 2026-09-19), 724 (37%) saw that county's ED visits trend 'Increasing' within 3 weeks; median lag 0 weeks. Counties with steady low wastewater: 34% (n 30,131).

Flags (35 total, newest 60)

idflagged atgeographymetricperiodvaluebaseline
1572026-11-09T04:34:24.475016+00:00West Virginia | Randolphwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3144.891
1562026-11-09T04:34:24.022050+00:00West Virginia | Marshallwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3114.551
1532026-11-09T04:34:22.652015+00:00Virginia | James Citywval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3118.3814.85
1522026-11-09T04:34:22.122029+00:00Virginia | Lynchburg Citywval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3112.287.25
1512026-11-09T04:34:21.688576+00:00Virginia | Campbellwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3112.287.25
1502026-11-09T04:34:21.241141+00:00Virginia | Amherstwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3112.287.25
1492026-11-09T04:34:20.782760+00:00Virginia | Yorkwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3128.8221.6
1482026-11-09T04:34:20.290267+00:00Virginia | Newport News Citywval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3128.8221.6
1472026-11-09T04:34:19.866449+00:00Virginia | Hampton Citywval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3128.8217.43
1462026-11-09T04:34:19.424122+00:00Virginia | Prince Williamwval_rose_into_very_high:Influenza A virus2026-10-3139.011
1452026-11-09T04:34:18.877173+00:00Virginia | Franklinwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3118.811.96
1432026-11-09T04:34:17.951405+00:00South Carolina | Jasperwval_rose_into_very_high:RSV2026-10-3116.21
1412026-11-09T04:34:17.060673+00:00South Carolina | Dorchesterwval_rose_into_very_high:Influenza A virus2026-10-3166.831
1402026-11-09T04:34:16.623109+00:00South Carolina | Charlestonwval_rose_into_very_high:Influenza A virus2026-10-3166.831
1392026-11-09T04:34:16.148142+00:00South Carolina | Berkeleywval_rose_into_very_high:Influenza A virus2026-10-3166.831
1382026-11-09T04:34:15.560055+00:00South Carolina | Yorkwval_rose_into_very_high:Influenza A virus2026-10-3165.121
1372026-11-09T04:34:15.134180+00:00Oregon | Tillamookwval_rose_into_very_high:RSV2026-10-3111.821.99
1362026-11-09T04:34:14.677536+00:00Oregon | Umatillawval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3124.747.06
1352026-11-09T04:34:14.238777+00:00Oregon | Marionwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3115.677.34
1342026-11-09T04:34:13.711451+00:00Oregon | Douglaswval_rose_into_very_high:Influenza A virus2026-10-31162.371
1332026-11-09T04:34:13.204428+00:00Oregon | Bentonwval_rose_into_very_high:RSV2026-10-3113.161
1312026-11-09T04:34:12.204590+00:00North Carolina | Swainwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3116.021
1302026-11-09T04:34:11.753831+00:00North Carolina | Carteretwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3115.814.11
1292026-11-09T04:34:11.297122+00:00New Jersey | Mercerwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3125.656.67
1282026-11-09T04:34:10.795298+00:00New Jersey | Sussexwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3112.543.77
1272026-11-09T04:34:10.346633+00:00New Jersey | Hunterdonwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3130.662.95
1262026-11-09T04:34:09.855710+00:00New Jersey | Atlanticwval_rose_into_very_high:Influenza A virus2026-10-3115.11
1252026-11-09T04:34:09.426640+00:00New Jersey | Atlanticwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3111.54.7
1232026-11-09T04:34:08.384000+00:00Missouri | Jeffersonwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3112.24.15
1222026-11-09T04:34:07.951118+00:00Michigan | Inghamwval_rose_into_very_high:Influenza A virus2026-10-3135.987.17
1212026-11-09T04:34:07.431288+00:00Michigan | Alleganwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-31105.841.07
1202026-11-09T04:34:06.971306+00:00Maine | Waldowval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3116.431
1192026-11-09T04:34:06.456307+00:00Maine | Kennebecwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3130.223.02
1182026-11-09T04:34:05.963831+00:00Kentucky | Perrywval_rose_into_very_high:Influenza A virus2026-10-3155.671
1172026-11-09T04:34:05.475182+00:00Kansas | Leavenworthwval_rose_into_very_high:SARS-CoV-22026-10-3116.443.28

Current state

latest wval week

2026-10-31

latest ed week

2026-10-31

county series

2,816

flags today

35

national

pathogencounties by category
SARS-CoV-2{"Very Low":172,"Low":160,"Moderate":125,"High":114,"Very High":97}
Influenza A virus{"Very Low":404,"Low":111,"Moderate":59,"High":17,"Very High":20}
RSV{"Very Low":508,"Low":48,"Moderate":19,"High":7,"Very High":12}

flags

countypathogennowtwo weeks agoed trend
Leavenworth, KansasSARS-CoV-2Very HighLowNo Change
Perry, KentuckyInfluenza A virusVery HighVery LowIncreasing
Kennebec, MaineSARS-CoV-2Very HighLowIncreasing
Waldo, MaineSARS-CoV-2Very HighVery LowIncreasing
Allegan, MichiganSARS-CoV-2Very HighVery LowNo Change
Ingham, MichiganInfluenza A virusVery HighModerateNo Change
Jefferson, MissouriSARS-CoV-2Very HighLowNo Change
Atlantic, New JerseySARS-CoV-2Very HighLowNo Change
Atlantic, New JerseyInfluenza A virusVery HighVery LowIncreasing
Hunterdon, New JerseySARS-CoV-2Very HighLowNo Change
Sussex, New JerseySARS-CoV-2Very HighLowIncreasing
Mercer, New JerseySARS-CoV-2Very HighModerateNo Change
Carteret, North CarolinaSARS-CoV-2Very HighLowNo Change
Swain, North CarolinaSARS-CoV-2Very HighVery LowNo Change
Benton, OregonRSVVery HighVery LowNo Change
Douglas, OregonInfluenza A virusVery HighVery LowNo Change
Marion, OregonSARS-CoV-2Very HighLowDecreasing
Umatilla, OregonSARS-CoV-2Very HighModerateNo Change
Tillamook, OregonRSVVery HighLowNo Change
York, South CarolinaInfluenza A virusVery HighVery LowIncreasing
Berkeley, South CarolinaInfluenza A virusVery HighVery LowIncreasing
Charleston, South CarolinaInfluenza A virusVery HighVery LowIncreasing
Dorchester, South CarolinaInfluenza A virusVery HighVery LowIncreasing
Jasper, South CarolinaRSVVery HighVery LowNo Change
Franklin, VirginiaSARS-CoV-2Very HighVery LowIncreasing
Prince William, VirginiaInfluenza A virusVery HighVery LowIncreasing
Hampton City, VirginiaSARS-CoV-2Very HighLowNo Change
Newport News City, VirginiaSARS-CoV-2Very HighModerateNo Change
York, VirginiaSARS-CoV-2Very HighModerateNo Change
Amherst, VirginiaSARS-CoV-2Very HighModerateIncreasing
Campbell, VirginiaSARS-CoV-2Very HighModerateIncreasing
Lynchburg City, VirginiaSARS-CoV-2Very HighModerateIncreasing
James City, VirginiaSARS-CoV-2Very HighLowNo Change
Marshall, West VirginiaSARS-CoV-2Very HighVery LowNo Change
Randolph, West VirginiaSARS-CoV-2Very HighVery LowNo Change

tsa

held: TSA throughput page refuses Workers (catalog #82); not used

Sources