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Drought Watch

Internal early-warning page. Not published, not indexed, not linked. Watches report base rates from history, never certain predictions. The editor has not signed off these rules yet.

Updated 2026-11-09T04:42:26.537215+00:00 by vps:pnwarn1/w6_drought.py.

Rule

Flag a state when 20% or more of its area is in severe drought or worse (D2+) and that share rose 10 points or more in four weeks.

Base rates

Across 104 months, the 12-month change in the share of the lower 48 in severe drought or worse (D2+) lines up best with food-at-home inflation 12 months later (correlation +0.45; lags 0-12 tested, all between -0.10 and +0.45). A loose, descriptive link, not a forecast.

Flags (7 total, newest 60)

idflagged atgeographymetricperiodvaluebaseline
1992026-11-09T04:40:09.155699+00:00TNd2plus_area_pct_4wk_rise2026-11-0358.4534.11
1982026-11-09T04:40:08.694400+00:00NCd2plus_area_pct_4wk_rise2026-11-0339.2625.37
1972026-11-09T04:40:08.212276+00:00MOd2plus_area_pct_4wk_rise2026-11-0336.2325.1
1962026-11-09T04:40:07.772508+00:00MSd2plus_area_pct_4wk_rise2026-11-0374.1738.75
1952026-11-09T04:40:07.334289+00:00MId2plus_area_pct_4wk_rise2026-11-0325.6210.95
1942026-11-09T04:40:06.869813+00:00MEd2plus_area_pct_4wk_rise2026-11-0360.0746.16
1932026-11-09T04:40:06.396390+00:00LAd2plus_area_pct_4wk_rise2026-11-0378.7463.11

Current state

latest map

2026-11-03

conus d2plus latest

22.96

flags today

7

states

stated2plusd2plus 4wk ago
AR91.3489.24
LA78.7463.11
MS74.1738.75
OK66.3380.38
ME60.0746.16
TN58.4534.11
OR57.5857.58
WY50.662.05
NC39.2625.37
WI38.3840.5
MO36.2325.1
UT36.1476.47
ID33.2652.75
TX32.3252.44
SC28.0427.75
CO26.4855.19
MI25.6210.95
WA23.5625.24
ND17.0832.73
VA15.8414.71

crop progress

not used: USDA NASS QuickStats needs a key and ESMIS releases are PDF/text (NOT VERIFIED parsing)

Sources