The Black Ball down 6 percentage points
What's new The Black Ball's odds of winning Best Picture at the Oscars have dropped to 10.5% as of Nov. 15, 2:30 p.m. UTC, according to Kalshi market record KXOSCARPIC-27-BLA.
Why it matters Kalshi's KXOSCARPIC-27-BLA market (Will The Black Ball win Best Picture at the Oscars) priced Yes at 10.5 cents on Nov. 15, 2026 (market_snapshots #842532), against 16.5 cents on Oct. 22, 2026 (first snapshot PostNewz holds for this market, market_snapshots #748).
This change matters because it reflects a shift in the market's estimate of the film's chances, which can influence industry decisions and public perception.
The market price is the mid of bid and ask at both ends, which is 10.5 cents, equivalent to a 10.5% implied probability of winning, as stated in the Kalshi contract terms (library/entertainment/kalshi-contract-terms-oscars-kxoscar.md).
This price is down 6 percentage points from the first snapshot PostNewz holds for this market on Oct. 22, where the Yes price was 16.5 cents, or 16.5% (Kalshi market record KXOSCARPIC-27-BLA).
The change in price reflects the market's evolving estimate of The Black Ball's chances, with the current price being the lowest in the available data, ranking at the 4th percentile of 13 earlier complete days (Kalshi market record KXOSCARPIC-27-BLA).
Room for disagreement
This reading is based on a specific market snapshot and may not reflect the full complexity of the film's chances or other factors that could influence its success.
About the data
Every figure in this story is read from PostNewz's market_snapshots table (163 rows read Nov 15, 4:30 PM UTC): Yes price, the mid of bid and ask at both ends (spreads of 10 cents or less), moved from 16.5¢ at the first snapshot (2026-10-22 04:15 UTC) to 10.5¢ (2026-11-15 14:30 UTC), 160 snapshots in market_snapshots. Prose by Ruby Singh (pnscore2-pnj-v32.8, model @cf/meta/llama-3.3-70b-instruct-fp8-fast, fallback: @cf/deepseek-ai/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017 was at capacity); numbers checked against the rows by the figure guard; neutrality check passed. All dates and times are UTC.