Wildwood's Rotten Tomatoes above-98 odds rise 46 points to 89.5 cents a share

Kalshi's KXRT-WILDW-98 contract pays out if Wildwood's Rotten Tomatoes score is above 98. The Yes price stood at a mid of 89.5 cents between the bid and ask on Oct. 24, and at 43.5 cents at the first snapshot PostNewz holds, on Oct. 22, according to Kalshi's market record for KXRT-WILDW-98. The 46-point gap is measured in percentage points of price, not as a percent change.

On Kalshi, a Yes price in cents is read as the market's implied probability in percent: 89.5 cents corresponds to roughly 89.5%. That figure is the market's estimate at that moment, not a forecast.

The Tomatometer is the share of tracked critic reviews counted as positive, so a score above 98 requires almost every counted review to be positive. A separate Kalshi contract on the same film, KXRT-WILDW-99, asks whether the score will be above 99 and stood at a mid of 53 cents in the same run. The two are distinct yes-or-no questions rather than outcomes of a single question, so no adjustment is made between their prices.

Across the 31 markets compared for this reading, the next-largest move belonged to Wicker's above-90 Rotten Tomatoes contract, which shifted 34.5 points. The Wildwood above-98 market is scheduled to close on Oct. 26, per Kalshi's event record for KXRT-WILDW.

The comparison spans two days, from the Oct. 22 snapshot to the Oct. 24 reading. Within that window the quoted mid moved between 42.5 cents and 92.5 cents, including a 64.5-cent print on Oct. 23.

Room for disagreement

The comparison covers roughly two days and the quoted mid swung between 42.5 and 92.5 cents inside it, so a single pair of snapshots can make the market look more settled than it was. The above-98 and above-99 contracts are separate questions, so their prices are not adjusted against each other.