Wicker Rotten Tomatoes market climbs 17.5 cents, from 75 to 92.5 cents

Kalshi's KXRT-WIC-92 contract asks whether Wicker's Rotten Tomatoes score will finish above 92. The Yes price, quoted as the midpoint of the best bid and ask at both ends of this comparison with spreads of 10 cents or less, was 92.5 cents on Oct. 29. The first snapshot PostNewz holds for the market, from Oct. 22, was 75 cents, a move of 17.5 cents, according to Kalshi's market record.

A Yes price in cents reads as the market's implied probability in percent, so 92.5 cents corresponds to about a 92.5% chance that the score clears 92. That is the market's estimate, not a forecast. The Tomatometer is the share of counted critic reviews rated positive.

The same event carries a higher threshold, above 94, which traded at a 41.5-cent midpoint, so the market puts considerably more probability on the score landing above 92 than above 94.

Within the market's own short history, 92.5 cents is the highest reading PostNewz holds: it ranks at the 100th percentile of six earlier complete days, whose median midpoint was 83.5 cents, and sits 1.3 typical daily spreads above that median, with a typical spread of 7 cents. The path there was uneven, with a 33.5-cent midpoint on Oct. 23 and 90.5 cents on Oct. 27.

For scale, the second-largest move among the Rotten Tomatoes score contracts in this series was a 51-cent decline in the above-94 market for Godzilla Minus Zero.

Room for disagreement

The 17.5-cent move comes off a week in which the midpoint also printed 33.5 cents, and the percentile ranking rests on six earlier daily readings, a short history. The contract's listed close is Nov. 2, so the score it references is not final.