Troy wins at 100 cents a share after a pre-game market estimate of 10.5 cents
Troy's college football market settled Yes at 100 cents a Yes share on Oct. 30, after its last pre-event snapshot on Oct. 29, 11:15 p.m. UTC showed a mid of 10.5 cents.
Prediction markets price an outcome in cents per Yes share, so a 10.5-cent mid put Troy at roughly a 10.5% market estimate before the game, and a Yes share paid 100 cents once the result was known.
The Kalshi market KXNCAAFGAME-26OCT29TROYJMU-TROY asked whether Troy would win its college football game against James Madison, scheduled for Oct. 30, and it settled Yes, paying 100 cents a Yes share. Kalshi's contract terms settle this series of game markets on the result reported by the governing league. The James Madison side of the same event settled No.
The last snapshot before the scheduled start, taken Oct. 29 at 11:15 p.m. UTC, put Troy's Yes price at a mid of 10.5 cents between the bid and the ask, with a spread of 10 cents or less; a mid is the market's estimate in percent, not a forecast by PostNewz. The first snapshot PostNewz holds for the market, taken Oct. 22 at 4:15 a.m. UTC, had a mid of 13.5 cents. Settlement at 100 cents was 89.5 cents above the Oct. 29 pre-event mid.
A Yes share in these markets pays 100 cents if the outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so the final price is the settlement value rather than a traded price.
Over seven earlier complete days, the market's last snapshot each day had a median mid of 8.5 cents and a typical daily spread of 1 cent, according to Kalshi snapshot data. The 100-cent settlement ranks at the 100th percentile of those days and sits 91.5 typical spreads above that median.
Figures come from Kalshi's market record for KXNCAAFGAME-26OCT29TROYJMU-TROY and its event record for KXNCAAFGAME-26OCT29TROYJMU.
Room for disagreement
The pre-event reading rests on a single snapshot in a market whose spread could reach 10 cents, so the estimate at the scheduled start could have differed by a few cents, and the seven-day comparison rests on a short history.
About the data
Every figure in this story is read from PostNewz's market_results table (455 rows read Oct 30, 4:30 PM UTC): The market settled Yes (final price 100¢) at 2026-10-30 03:32 UTC; the last pre-event mid of bid and ask (spread 10¢ or less) was 10.5¢ (2026-10-29 23:15 UTC); first snapshot 13.5¢ (market_results, market_snapshots). Prose by Avery Flynn (pn116-pnj-v16, model @cf/deepseek-ai/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017); numbers checked against the rows by the figure guard; neutrality check passed. All dates and times are UTC.