The Cat in the Hat above-60 Rotten Tomatoes odds: 52 to 80.5 cents on Kalshi

The contract is Kalshi's KXRT-CAT-60, written as "The Cat in the Hat Rotten Tomatoes score? | Above 60." A Yes share pays 100 cents if the film's Tomatometer score ends up above 60 and nothing if it does not, and the event's close time is Nov. 9. The Tomatometer, as Rotten Tomatoes describes it, is the share of professional critic reviews that the site counts as positive.

Prices here are the mid of bid and ask at both ends of the comparison, with spreads of 10 cents or less. The mid was 80.5 cents at the Oct. 26 snapshot and 52 cents at the Oct. 22 snapshot, a change of 28.5 cents. A Yes price in cents reads as the market's implied probability in percent, so 80.5 cents corresponds to about 80.5 percent.

Two neighbouring thresholds in the same Kalshi event moved with it. The above-65 contract was at 71 cents and the above-75 contract at 42.5 cents at their snapshots. The above-65 market's move of 26.5 cents was the second-largest in the comparison, which spans 39 Kalshi markets.

Against its own short history, 80.5 cents is the highest reading recorded: it ranks at the 100th percentile of the four earlier complete days in the record, whose last snapshots had a median of 63.8 cents and a typical daily spread of 2.5 cents. The current mid sits 6.7 typical spreads above that median.

All figures come from Kalshi's market record for KXRT-CAT-60 and its event record for KXRT-CAT. The prices are the market's estimate, not a PostNewz forecast, and no Tomatometer score has been settled by this contract yet.

Room for disagreement

Four earlier complete days is a thin history to rank a price against, and the reading is one market's mid rather than a settled score, so a wider spread or a handful of trades could move it. The three threshold prices are separate markets and are not adjusted here for the vig across the question's outcomes.