San Antonio's win price on Kalshi rises 12 points to 82 cents from 70 cents
Kalshi's "San Antonio wins" market for the Oct. 24 NBA game against Dallas moved from a 70-cent mid to an 82-cent mid between the first snapshot PostNewz holds, on Oct. 22, and the Oct. 24 snapshot.
A price in cents on this market is the market's implied probability in percent, so a 12-cent move is a 12-percentage-point shift in how the market priced San Antonio's chance of winning.
Kalshi's market "San Antonio wins" (ticker KXNBAGAME-26OCT24SASDAL-SAS, part of event KXNBAGAME-26OCT24SASDAL for the Oct. 24, 2026 game) priced a San Antonio win at a mid of 82 cents in the Oct. 24 snapshot, against a mid of 70 cents in the first snapshot PostNewz holds for this market, taken Oct. 22. That is a change of 12 points. A Yes price in cents equals the market's implied probability in percent, so 82 cents reads as roughly an 82% estimate; change in points is a change in percentage points, not a percent change.
The other side of the same game, "Dallas wins" (KXNBAGAME-26OCT24SASDAL-DAL), was at a mid of 18.5 cents in the Oct. 24 snapshot. Dividing each side's mid by the sum of the two mids, 100.5, removes the vig: about 82% for San Antonio and about 18% for Dallas. Prices in this comparison are the mid of bid and ask at both ends, with spreads of 10 cents or less.
The 12-point move was the largest among 396 NBA game markets compared in the series. The second largest was Atlanta wins, up 11 points (KXNBAGAME-26OCT24HOUATL-ATL). The market's close time is listed as Oct. 27. Per Kalshi's basketball game-win contract terms (library key library/sports/kalshi-contract-terms-basketball-game-win-kxnbagame.md), the market measures who wins the game as settled by the league, so the price is the market's estimate of that outcome, not a forecast by PostNewz.
All figures come from Kalshi's market record for KXNBAGAME-26OCT24SASDAL-SAS and its event record for KXNBAGAME-26OCT24SASDAL.
Room for disagreement
The comparison spans two snapshots about two days apart, and the second-largest move in the same 396-market field was 11 points, so a 12-point move is not far out of line with the rest of the field. The vig-free split also rests on the two mids summing to 100.5, close to but not exactly 100.
About the data
Every figure in this story is read from PostNewz's market_snapshots table (493 rows read Oct 23, 5:46 p.m. HST): Yes price, the mid of bid and ask at both ends (spreads of 10 cents or less), moved from 70¢ at the first snapshot (2026-10-22 04:15 UTC) to 82¢ (2026-10-24 03:45 UTC), 97 snapshots in market_snapshots. Prose by Avery Flynn (pn94-pnj-v6, model @cf/deepseek-ai/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017); numbers checked against the rows by the figure guard; neutrality check passed.