Klara and the Sun 'above 25' Rotten Tomatoes odds fall 37.5 points to 20.5 cents

Kalshi's KXRT-KLA-25 contract resolves on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score for the film Klara and the Sun, paying Yes if that score finishes above 25. The Tomatometer is the percentage of counted critic reviews judged positive, so a threshold contract asks how much of the review pool lands on the positive side. Per Kalshi's contract terms for the KXRT series, the Yes price in cents is the market's implied probability in percent, making 20.5 cents roughly a 20.5% estimate.

The midpoint on Oct. 24 was 20.5 cents, against 58 cents at the first snapshot PostNewz holds for this market, on Oct. 22 — a change of 37.5 percentage points. Prices cited here are the mid of bid and ask at both ends of the comparison, with spreads of 10 cents or less. Kalshi's event record lists the score date as Oct. 24 and the contract's close as Oct. 26.

Contracts on lower thresholds in the same event price higher. The above-22 contract stood at 75 cents and the above-20 contract at 89.5 cents at the same snapshot, so the market puts a higher probability on clearing a lower bar than a higher one.

Across the 62 markets in this comparison, the second-largest move was the Clayface above-75 contract, up 35 points, per the same Kalshi snapshot records.

Room for disagreement

The 37.5-point gap rests on two snapshots taken about two days apart, and the price moved in both directions between them, so a different starting point would show a smaller or larger change.