Dartmouth wins: Kalshi contract settles at 100 cents a share, pre-game 23.5 cents
Dartmouth's Kalshi college football contract settled Yes at 100 cents a share on Oct. 31, after the last pre-event mid price was 23.5 cents.
Kalshi's college football markets let people trade on which team wins a game, so the settlement price shows how far the market's pre-game estimate sat from the result.
The Kalshi market for the Harvard–Dartmouth college football game settled Yes for Dartmouth on Oct. 31, at 100 cents a Yes share, according to the Kalshi market record. The paired contract naming Harvard settled No. A Yes share pays 100 cents when the named outcome happens and nothing when it does not, so the settlement value is the payout, not a price anyone traded.
The last snapshot PostNewz holds before the event, taken Oct. 30 at 22:45 UTC, put Dartmouth at a mid price of 23.5 cents, which reads as roughly a 23.5% market estimate that Dartmouth would win. The first snapshot PostNewz holds for this market, on Oct. 22 at 04:15 UTC, had the mid at 25 cents. Prices quoted here are the mid of bid and ask, with a spread of 10 cents or less.
The settlement of 100 cents came in 76.5 cents above that Oct. 30 pre-event mid. Between the Oct. 22 snapshot and the pre-event snapshot the mid moved within a range of about 20 cents to 33.5 cents.
On the six earlier complete days tracked for this market, the last snapshot of each day had a median of 27.8 cents and a typical spread of 0.8 cents; the 100-cent settlement ranks at the 100th percentile of those readings, per Kalshi market data.
Figures come from the Kalshi market record for KXNCAAFGAME-26OCT30HARVDART-DART and the Kalshi event record for KXNCAAFGAME-26OCT30HARVDART. The pre-event price was the market's estimate, not a forecast by PostNewz.
Room for disagreement
A single game settles only once, so the gap between 23.5 cents and 100 cents reflects one outcome rather than a track record. The market traded between about 20 and 33.5 cents over the week, a range wide enough to support more than one reading of how confident traders were.
About the data
Every figure in this story is read from PostNewz's market_results table (415 rows read Oct 31, 4:30 PM UTC): The market settled Yes (final price 100¢) at 2026-10-31 02:22 UTC; the last pre-event mid of bid and ask (spread 10¢ or less) was 23.5¢ (2026-10-30 22:45 UTC); first snapshot 25¢ (market_results, market_snapshots). Prose by Avery Flynn (pn116-pnj-v16, model @cf/deepseek-ai/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017); numbers checked against the rows by the figure guard; neutrality check passed. All dates and times are UTC.