Dallas NBA win market moves to 99.5 cents from 35.5 cents on Kalshi, a 64-point gain
The market for Dallas winning its NBA game was at 99.5 cents, a 64-point gain from the first snapshot of 35.5 cents.
A price like this is a traded estimate of how likely a team is to win, so readers can see how one game's chances were being priced hour by hour rather than only in a pre-game odds line.
On Kalshi's market for the Dallas–Indiana NBA game, the Dallas contract titled "Dallas wins" was quoted at a midpoint of 93.5 cents at Oct. 24, 12:45 a.m. UTC, with a bid of 93 cents and an ask of 94 cents, according to Kalshi's market record for KXNBAGAME-26OCT23DALIND-DAL. The first snapshot PostNewz holds for that market, taken Oct. 22 at 4:15 a.m. UTC, put the midpoint at 35.5 cents. The move is 58 percentage points.
A Yes price in cents on Kalshi reads as the market's implied probability in percent, so 93.5 cents is roughly a 93.5% estimate that Dallas wins. The paired Indiana contract, "Indiana wins," sat at 6.5 cents at the same time, and because the two midpoints add to 100 cents, removing the vig leaves the Dallas figure at 93.5%.
The Indiana side moved 57 points in the opposite direction, the second-largest move among the 668 markets compared in this snapshot set, according to Kalshi's records for the two contracts. Kalshi lists the event's close time as Oct. 25, 11 p.m. UTC.
Within the snapshots PostNewz holds between Oct. 22 and Oct. 24, the Dallas midpoint stayed between 29.5 and 35.5 cents until the last two readings, which were 70.5 cents and then 93.5 cents. Changes here are in percentage points, not percent change: a move from 35.5 to 93.5 cents is a 58-point move, not a 58% gain.
The quote is the market's estimate of the chance Dallas wins, not a forecast by PostNewz. The one-cent gap between the 93-cent bid and the 94-cent ask is the data's only direct measure of how tightly this contract was being priced at that moment.
Room for disagreement
Almost all of the 58-point move came in the final two snapshots, which are about 45 minutes apart, so the 93.5-cent level could be read as a brief quote at the end of a two-day window rather than a settled price. The two-day window itself is short, and a single snapshot pair cannot show how long the higher level held.
About the data
Every figure in this story is read from PostNewz's market_snapshots table (813 rows read Oct 23, 2:59 p.m. HST): Yes price (mid of bid and ask) moved from 35.5¢ at the first snapshot (2026-10-22 04:15 UTC) to 93.5¢ (2026-10-24 00:45 UTC), 145 snapshots in market_snapshots. Prose by Avery Flynn (pn93-pnj-v5, model @cf/deepseek-ai/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017); numbers checked against the rows by the figure guard; neutrality check passed.
Corrections
- : Correction: The headline and summary gave a price from earlier in the day; when the story was published the price was 99.5 cents. The change at publication was 64 points. The game had already started when the story was published, so the price moved during play. The correct market price at publish was 99.5 cents, and the change in points was 64. An earlier version of the headline read: “Dallas NBA win market moves to 94 cents from 36 on Kalshi, a 58-point gain.” Corrected Oct. 24, 2026, 1:19 a.m. HST.
- : Correction: The headline and summary gave a price from earlier in the day; when the story was published the price was 99.5 cents. The change at publication was 64 points. The game had already started when the story was published, so the price moved during play. The correct price is 99.5 cents and the change is a 64-point gain from 35.5 cents. An earlier version of the summary read: “Kalshi's market on Dallas winning its NBA game against Indiana was at 93.5 cents on Oct. 24, up 58 percentage points from the 35.5 cents in the first snapshot PostNewz holds from Oct. 22.” Corrected Oct. 24, 2026, 2:28 a.m. HST.
- : Correction: The game had already started when the story was published, so the price moved during play. The story was published after the game started. The market price for Dallas winning was 35.5 cents at the first snapshot and 99.5 cents at publish, a 64-point gain. Corrected Oct. 24, 2026, 12:06 p.m. HST.